* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 08/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 57 61 63 63 62 61 59 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 49 57 61 63 63 62 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 49 50 50 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 8 7 6 4 7 4 4 2 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -3 -7 -6 -5 -2 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 66 79 75 63 52 71 53 82 104 73 129 95 118 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.7 26.9 26.2 25.6 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 149 147 141 132 124 117 112 109 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 74 74 73 71 70 71 65 63 60 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 19 18 9 8 5 0 3 28 31 48 50 200 MB DIV 44 46 54 65 58 44 34 51 28 16 8 -5 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -6 -6 0 -2 0 0 1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 767 789 820 857 903 916 949 1014 1077 1113 1166 1237 1328 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 5 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 46 47 47 46 39 30 19 20 9 0 1 10 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 24. 32. 36. 38. 38. 37. 36. 34. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 08/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)