* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 08/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 35 41 46 57 66 72 74 75 74 71 69 V (KT) LAND 25 29 35 41 46 57 66 72 74 75 74 71 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 34 37 45 54 61 66 68 67 64 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 9 9 9 8 2 4 3 2 4 2 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 -5 -3 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 53 56 77 75 55 58 92 29 96 161 145 148 150 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.3 26.9 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 150 148 143 135 131 125 120 114 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 74 77 75 76 73 72 70 70 66 64 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 11 13 12 2 -4 -6 -7 5 28 40 52 200 MB DIV 50 42 31 47 49 32 47 38 46 33 43 -7 13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 -3 -7 -3 1 -2 0 1 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 720 739 764 777 792 863 932 937 964 1008 1082 1140 1190 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 54 55 51 48 49 39 36 26 20 16 9 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 21. 32. 41. 47. 49. 50. 49. 46. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 08/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)