* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 08/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 26 30 35 45 51 52 51 48 44 41 38 V (KT) LAND 20 22 26 30 35 45 51 52 51 48 44 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 40 41 38 34 30 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 7 5 4 5 3 6 3 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 0 0 -1 2 -3 3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 50 46 46 78 102 29 338 260 309 281 282 268 294 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.4 27.7 26.5 25.2 23.8 23.2 22.9 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 152 152 149 142 130 116 101 95 91 88 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 69 71 73 71 70 68 69 63 61 53 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -9 -1 8 12 16 14 12 2 13 13 17 16 200 MB DIV 27 42 43 25 30 44 35 37 30 20 13 -9 5 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 0 0 -5 0 1 2 0 2 7 5 LAND (KM) 691 691 708 734 761 854 916 952 1046 1138 1284 1404 1560 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.1 13.5 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.3 18.4 19.1 19.7 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.5 106.5 107.6 108.7 111.0 113.4 115.8 118.4 120.9 123.3 125.6 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 12 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 56 57 51 50 44 34 19 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 27. 28. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 25. 31. 32. 31. 28. 24. 21. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 08/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)