* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/20/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 48 50 49 50 49 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 46 48 50 49 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 33 36 40 45 48 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 16 14 10 10 18 19 21 23 24 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -4 -3 1 1 0 -2 0 -7 -1 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 148 131 116 133 165 158 156 123 121 116 117 118 141 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 164 164 164 164 162 162 159 158 154 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 76 77 72 74 75 71 70 68 64 58 53 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 59 66 66 58 75 62 70 62 57 31 1 0 200 MB DIV 123 105 101 109 112 115 114 87 92 74 55 28 46 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -1 -4 -2 -6 -3 -1 1 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 547 557 568 590 618 703 799 858 879 899 867 804 739 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.6 99.1 99.7 100.3 101.8 103.5 105.1 106.2 107.0 107.3 107.2 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 49 49 50 53 59 72 70 64 62 63 64 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 25. 24. 25. 24. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##