* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/20/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 55 68 76 79 81 76 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 44 55 68 76 79 81 76 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 32 37 45 55 67 78 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 20 21 17 11 11 12 14 19 17 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -4 0 1 -1 -2 -3 -8 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 145 144 132 110 126 114 94 87 79 89 83 84 105 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 163 163 163 162 161 161 160 159 161 163 163 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.2 -53.3 -52.3 -53.0 -51.8 -52.5 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 73 76 75 74 70 68 68 64 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 9 10 10 13 16 18 18 18 13 6 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 65 73 74 70 77 61 61 63 57 53 49 200 MB DIV 174 151 124 120 135 129 132 103 132 133 147 98 69 700-850 TADV 0 3 4 2 1 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 547 577 607 622 641 728 782 831 836 810 717 553 327 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.4 10.7 11.4 12.4 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 98.0 98.5 98.9 99.4 99.8 101.0 102.2 103.3 104.1 104.2 103.7 102.3 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 5 4 5 6 6 5 3 3 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 50 48 46 46 47 46 52 69 75 72 71 88 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 817 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 14. 14. 15. 8. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 19. 30. 43. 51. 54. 56. 51. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 140.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/20/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##