* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/19/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 45 56 68 75 79 80 79 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 45 56 68 75 79 80 79 73 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 27 29 33 38 46 57 68 79 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 19 20 17 8 13 8 14 18 17 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -3 -2 3 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 133 137 128 120 111 99 80 65 59 80 100 84 93 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 162 162 162 161 161 160 160 159 161 161 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 76 73 75 72 71 69 67 67 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 11 13 16 16 18 17 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 63 64 71 60 76 74 67 60 64 55 51 200 MB DIV 172 174 156 124 118 122 123 119 114 116 140 118 119 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 3 1 0 -1 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 533 566 600 637 676 743 808 852 877 844 780 647 465 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.1 10.8 10.6 10.3 10.0 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.5 11.1 12.0 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.3 99.5 99.9 100.2 101.1 102.1 103.1 104.1 104.5 104.4 103.5 101.9 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 50 49 47 46 47 66 85 90 90 79 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 13. 12. 10. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 20. 31. 43. 50. 54. 55. 54. 48. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/19/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/19/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##