* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/18/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 45 48 56 60 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 41 45 48 56 60 64 67 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 36 40 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 23 20 12 13 14 13 11 16 17 10 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 1 1 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 149 161 177 190 184 178 140 126 105 119 97 88 78 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 161 159 157 157 158 158 158 154 150 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.1 -52.8 -51.7 -52.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.2 -51.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 73 74 73 69 68 66 65 61 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 17 18 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 13 25 40 55 61 58 63 65 78 84 89 200 MB DIV 105 99 82 70 73 106 102 79 64 62 72 33 96 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 -5 -6 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 460 383 308 266 224 213 239 299 381 500 639 782 898 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.7 13.3 13.0 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.4 99.2 99.4 100.0 100.9 102.3 104.2 106.3 108.2 109.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 4 2 2 4 5 8 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 52 46 43 42 37 31 32 44 32 45 33 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 12. 14. 16. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 31. 35. 39. 42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/18/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/18/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##