* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922012 05/16/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 36 41 43 45 46 50 54 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 30 36 41 43 45 46 50 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 29 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 10 10 11 11 9 8 12 14 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 0 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 253 197 212 196 218 210 187 178 156 120 128 121 118 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 166 166 166 166 162 156 151 148 147 145 145 143 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 80 78 75 76 79 81 85 79 76 72 69 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 8 9 9 10 13 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -2 -14 -10 -10 1 6 25 28 55 56 61 67 200 MB DIV 69 66 65 78 68 81 69 80 62 74 51 48 60 700-850 TADV 3 2 3 2 1 0 -1 -3 -2 1 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 651 606 562 534 520 466 419 380 352 342 354 417 529 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.5 11.9 13.0 13.9 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.0 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 98.0 98.8 99.6 100.4 101.7 102.7 103.2 103.5 103.9 104.4 105.2 106.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 9 7 6 3 2 3 3 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 52 59 57 56 59 55 41 36 34 29 22 17 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 6. 7. 7. 9. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 16. 18. 20. 21. 25. 29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922012 INVEST 05/16/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922012 INVEST 05/16/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##