* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP912013 09/17/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 39 44 50 54 55 54 54 54 53 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 39 44 50 54 55 54 47 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 39 43 47 50 54 50 52 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 1 3 4 4 4 3 4 9 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -7 -1 -5 -3 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 226 257 100 137 183 125 187 116 200 117 168 150 184 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.4 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 154 154 155 156 156 152 145 136 129 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 10 7 10 8 10 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 69 68 62 60 55 53 51 48 43 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 77 65 58 49 38 39 46 37 32 21 28 30 29 200 MB DIV 0 -9 -2 -1 -7 16 13 -8 -1 -3 0 6 10 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 118 131 142 153 163 94 65 65 55 15 -8 31 49 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.2 22.3 22.5 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.2 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.1 107.4 107.7 108.0 108.5 108.8 109.1 109.5 110.1 110.7 111.6 112.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 26 24 24 22 22 22 22 11 41 32 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 19. 25. 29. 30. 29. 29. 29. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 MANUEL 09/17/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 62% is 4.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 MANUEL 09/17/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##