* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MANUEL EP912013 09/17/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 40 44 45 43 42 41 41 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 36 40 44 45 43 42 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 29 30 30 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 1 0 2 3 5 8 8 8 6 14 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 -3 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 189 225 31 84 112 152 137 160 142 123 125 142 166 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 153 153 153 154 154 152 149 143 135 126 116 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 11 10 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 74 76 74 72 70 66 62 57 55 48 46 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 84 76 78 69 52 33 48 29 45 27 46 31 35 200 MB DIV 49 10 5 17 3 -3 8 4 0 -2 6 16 2 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 89 103 118 139 162 180 135 66 15 75 148 212 221 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.6 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.5 106.7 107.0 107.2 107.8 108.4 109.2 109.9 110.8 111.7 112.7 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 20 21 22 23 20 16 8 2 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 20. 24. 25. 23. 22. 21. 21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 MANUEL 09/17/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 1.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 MANUEL 09/17/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##