* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 08/03/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 22 23 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 22 23 22 21 19 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 18 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 5 6 8 12 17 20 24 29 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 1 1 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 96 125 174 216 247 227 232 238 234 219 212 210 214 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 135 132 130 127 127 128 129 130 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 51 49 46 45 43 45 45 46 45 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 7 0 -2 -5 -5 1 0 -5 0 3 2 -4 1 200 MB DIV 48 22 20 14 5 -8 -27 -36 -19 -12 -23 7 -8 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 1 2 3 3 1 4 2 3 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1137 1057 980 901 825 690 583 511 483 497 526 576 643 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.7 149.5 150.4 151.2 152.8 154.3 155.6 156.8 157.9 159.0 160.1 161.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 12 9 2 1 1 2 5 6 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 08/03/13 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 INVEST 08/03/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##