* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 08/03/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 33 33 31 27 22 18 16 15 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 33 33 31 27 22 18 16 15 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 26 25 23 20 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 1 4 6 7 10 17 17 18 20 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 75 31 8 216 252 245 223 254 248 250 239 227 218 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 135 134 130 127 124 123 122 123 124 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 54 52 48 47 44 44 45 46 47 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 0 2 0 -1 3 1 7 8 14 10 16 200 MB DIV 71 49 31 15 10 5 10 -9 -29 -39 -21 -13 15 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 0 1 3 4 3 1 1 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1257 1157 1059 981 904 749 630 538 495 468 458 444 446 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.2 15.1 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 146.5 147.4 148.3 149.0 149.7 151.0 152.0 152.6 153.0 153.3 153.7 154.3 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 9 8 1 14 13 13 11 11 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -9. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 08/03/13 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 INVEST 08/03/13 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##