* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 08/03/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 40 42 43 43 38 32 26 21 18 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 37 40 42 43 43 38 32 26 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 32 32 30 28 25 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 4 0 6 7 12 17 19 25 26 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 -2 -1 2 3 3 5 SHEAR DIR 53 65 16 356 216 268 235 242 239 238 232 239 237 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 136 135 132 129 126 124 122 122 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 54 55 54 52 50 47 45 45 43 42 44 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 17 10 0 0 -6 0 -3 0 0 14 11 12 200 MB DIV 81 69 59 38 9 -5 0 -5 -10 -17 -21 -1 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 0 2 4 4 1 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1420 1311 1204 1112 1021 877 750 653 592 546 522 498 484 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.3 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 145.0 146.1 147.1 147.9 148.6 149.7 150.7 151.4 151.8 152.1 152.2 152.3 152.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 10 11 10 4 20 17 14 7 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 397 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 13. 7. 1. -4. -7. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 08/03/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 INVEST 08/03/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##