* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 08/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 29 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 24 23 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 13 9 16 19 23 26 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 8 1 8 7 8 7 6 SHEAR DIR 222 243 257 272 302 308 244 243 247 240 241 238 250 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.3 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 136 134 129 125 122 118 117 115 116 117 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 53 53 52 49 46 46 45 45 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -6 -2 -1 11 16 9 3 7 -1 1 29 50 200 MB DIV 32 29 9 5 48 51 77 30 30 4 -8 1 4 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 5 0 3 1 3 2 LAND (KM) 2058 1953 1848 1741 1635 1421 1246 1115 1019 962 920 880 806 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.7 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 137.0 138.1 139.1 140.1 141.1 142.9 144.3 145.3 145.9 146.3 146.6 147.0 147.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 4 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 8 12 16 6 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 0. -5. -10. -17. -22. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 08/02/13 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912013 INVEST 08/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##