* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/30/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 29 27 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 29 27 24 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 28 26 23 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 15 18 19 15 17 14 17 14 18 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 3 2 -2 -1 0 2 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 83 78 101 113 125 152 180 189 187 184 168 192 190 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 141 139 136 132 130 126 123 120 116 113 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 54 52 52 48 39 33 31 27 27 26 24 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -14 -13 -7 -4 0 4 11 15 19 15 18 18 200 MB DIV 25 8 -6 -9 -16 -35 -14 4 5 9 22 7 24 700-850 TADV 2 0 -6 -4 -3 0 1 0 -1 -3 -4 0 1 LAND (KM) 985 945 909 899 859 855 909 983 1049 1128 1155 1192 1213 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 111.8 111.9 112.2 112.4 113.4 114.5 115.6 116.6 117.8 118.7 119.7 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 16 12 7 7 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/30/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)