* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/30/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 12 12 14 14 15 16 13 17 15 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 2 0 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 99 101 108 108 120 151 176 191 193 188 200 218 207 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 140 135 130 123 120 115 112 108 103 95 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 54 52 52 50 48 41 35 31 27 25 24 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 3 11 13 3 7 7 16 22 14 19 10 200 MB DIV 25 23 5 1 -3 -28 -29 -14 11 3 0 -7 -17 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -5 -6 -2 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1039 996 956 917 862 824 846 895 936 975 970 948 914 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.3 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.8 18.5 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 112.3 112.3 112.6 112.8 113.6 114.7 115.6 116.4 117.2 117.9 118.5 119.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 18 13 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 8 CX,CY: 7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -27. -29. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/30/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)