* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/29/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 28 26 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 14 14 17 17 14 17 16 16 16 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 4 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 1 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 84 93 103 108 105 146 176 188 198 201 219 223 228 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.2 24.8 24.3 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 143 140 136 129 122 117 114 112 108 103 95 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 51 52 54 49 45 42 33 25 24 22 22 20 19 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 18 22 27 27 21 13 29 26 29 18 18 200 MB DIV 27 18 20 11 3 -11 -24 -22 -12 -3 -7 -8 -13 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -6 -8 -4 0 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1118 1051 987 936 873 790 785 810 836 859 874 847 815 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.5 17.1 17.4 17.6 17.8 18.2 18.9 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.8 112.7 112.5 112.7 112.8 113.3 114.3 115.1 115.7 116.2 116.9 117.5 118.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 20 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -32. -35. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/29/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)