* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/29/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 41 43 42 38 33 26 20 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 40 41 43 42 38 33 26 20 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 34 37 40 43 46 47 46 42 38 33 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 10 11 12 8 9 10 13 14 14 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 4 7 3 0 0 -1 -3 0 3 3 SHEAR DIR 70 84 66 86 102 117 131 167 176 200 212 237 248 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.4 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.9 24.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 147 144 137 126 118 112 109 108 106 102 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 45 44 40 39 35 28 26 24 23 21 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 7 5 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 36 28 29 36 44 34 26 30 36 40 46 44 200 MB DIV 73 40 12 -7 7 7 -4 -28 -18 -30 -10 -16 -25 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -5 -4 -6 -6 -1 1 1 1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1328 1313 1297 1234 1172 1052 965 945 975 985 994 1001 957 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.7 13.3 14.7 16.0 16.8 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.8 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.3 114.4 114.5 114.6 115.0 115.6 116.3 117.2 117.7 118.0 118.4 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 10 14 20 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 12. 8. 3. -4. -10. -15. -19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/29/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)