* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/28/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 33 40 45 43 40 34 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 30 33 40 45 43 40 34 30 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 26 28 30 31 30 29 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 8 11 16 16 10 9 8 9 3 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 1 6 0 1 0 0 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 55 68 98 75 53 93 110 92 98 119 130 334 105 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.6 26.4 25.7 25.3 25.2 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 150 148 140 127 118 112 110 111 113 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 57 53 52 49 46 46 45 41 32 28 27 25 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 14 13 12 13 12 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 38 46 28 24 36 36 31 31 43 41 35 200 MB DIV 50 82 103 82 44 21 17 2 -42 -9 -16 -26 -31 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 -3 -6 -4 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1390 1397 1405 1382 1359 1207 993 811 728 729 744 774 828 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.2 12.8 14.8 16.7 17.8 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.3 114.5 114.5 114.4 114.2 114.0 114.1 114.4 115.0 115.2 115.4 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 3 5 9 10 8 4 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 13 18 22 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 26. 28. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 20. 25. 23. 20. 14. 10. 9. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/28/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)