* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/28/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 36 40 42 40 36 35 36 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 36 40 42 40 36 35 36 38 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 31 32 32 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 10 13 22 24 24 23 23 22 17 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -3 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 49 58 75 91 60 67 91 97 92 91 114 95 94 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 149 149 152 150 144 139 138 143 147 153 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 58 60 56 54 52 46 48 51 46 41 40 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 14 25 41 43 26 21 14 9 8 15 16 12 200 MB DIV 19 44 80 100 96 52 57 6 -30 -18 -4 0 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 -3 -6 -3 -9 -4 -3 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 1353 1394 1436 1452 1467 1389 1220 1048 910 869 885 932 1005 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.8 12.3 13.8 14.8 14.8 14.2 13.2 12.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.0 114.5 114.7 114.8 114.4 113.7 112.9 112.1 111.6 111.3 110.9 110.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 3 2 1 6 8 7 4 2 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 14 13 13 13 18 21 10 13 26 37 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 20. 16. 15. 16. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/28/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)