* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/27/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 28 35 44 50 51 48 46 44 42 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 28 35 44 50 51 48 46 44 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 38 40 39 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 9 9 5 14 20 23 27 20 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 1 2 4 0 -5 -2 0 0 2 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 68 67 78 98 129 91 114 127 135 137 128 136 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 151 149 147 144 146 145 143 137 131 124 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 54 58 57 59 56 49 44 40 38 38 30 27 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -5 2 12 36 63 47 34 30 44 28 21 32 200 MB DIV -17 -8 11 39 62 91 51 68 -6 11 -14 -40 -35 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -3 -2 -1 1 -3 LAND (KM) 1312 1366 1422 1449 1469 1492 1458 1348 1224 1097 1047 1024 1010 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 11.1 12.0 13.2 14.4 15.1 15.7 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.2 114.9 115.4 115.8 116.1 116.0 115.6 115.5 115.3 115.6 116.1 116.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 4 3 1 3 5 6 5 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 22 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 15. 24. 30. 31. 28. 26. 24. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/27/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)