* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/27/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 24 27 33 42 47 49 47 46 44 43 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 24 27 33 42 47 49 47 46 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 24 27 31 34 37 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 10 8 10 11 12 20 22 32 25 22 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -4 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 121 107 95 104 92 108 80 98 116 128 123 121 122 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 150 148 145 142 144 144 140 135 129 126 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.8 -53.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 59 57 56 53 48 43 40 41 38 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 0 11 21 58 75 68 37 39 28 16 9 200 MB DIV -4 -7 12 35 59 91 90 52 3 -1 5 -24 -37 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 2 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 1212 1265 1320 1372 1400 1442 1477 1427 1313 1180 1087 1053 1053 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.1 11.5 12.4 13.6 14.5 15.1 15.3 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.4 114.1 114.8 115.4 116.1 116.4 116.2 115.7 115.4 115.3 115.7 116.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 3 0 4 5 6 4 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 14 13 13 15 15 15 13 16 22 13 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 13. 22. 27. 29. 27. 26. 24. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/27/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)