* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/27/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 37 43 45 44 43 40 39 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 37 43 45 44 43 40 39 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 26 28 32 35 37 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 11 11 9 10 7 15 19 22 29 25 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 4 0 -3 -6 -5 -3 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 99 109 107 125 142 93 113 117 117 134 133 140 145 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 151 149 143 141 139 139 138 135 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 57 57 56 57 56 55 46 41 37 36 32 28 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -3 -4 -2 8 35 67 56 32 23 35 25 31 200 MB DIV 5 0 -2 17 45 64 70 33 32 -21 -8 -8 -27 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 -2 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 1161 1211 1265 1325 1361 1407 1464 1500 1467 1402 1326 1284 1254 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.8 12.5 13.4 14.1 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.8 113.6 114.4 115.2 116.4 117.1 117.4 117.5 117.5 117.6 117.9 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 3 4 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 33 23 16 13 10 14 17 18 19 21 22 17 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 17. 23. 25. 24. 23. 20. 19. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/27/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)