* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/26/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 42 47 52 57 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 34 42 47 52 57 50 50 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 29 33 38 43 47 48 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 13 13 7 8 7 20 33 34 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -2 -5 -1 0 0 -6 -6 -5 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 82 82 96 88 90 103 98 99 92 92 87 94 97 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 155 154 152 148 147 150 150 147 146 145 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 65 59 59 61 56 59 56 53 47 47 49 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 9 12 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 6 4 6 12 38 69 61 60 30 18 13 200 MB DIV 12 6 2 -5 7 46 86 77 66 92 34 24 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 1072 1110 1153 1208 1266 1374 1441 1456 1399 1250 1094 962 864 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.0 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.2 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.8 111.5 112.3 113.1 114.5 115.4 115.5 114.9 113.7 112.5 111.3 110.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 7 6 2 2 5 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 56 41 29 21 14 13 13 13 19 27 34 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 9. 3. 5. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 22. 27. 32. 37. 30. 30. 28. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/26/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)