* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/26/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 39 44 47 48 48 46 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 34 39 44 47 48 48 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 30 34 37 40 43 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 12 13 17 17 13 13 20 37 44 40 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -5 -4 -3 1 1 0 -8 -8 0 0 SHEAR DIR 42 66 95 96 95 99 120 113 105 87 96 105 97 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 159 159 156 154 152 153 154 154 154 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 64 61 62 57 60 58 55 51 49 55 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -6 3 9 11 7 10 35 51 52 33 13 16 200 MB DIV 58 59 41 41 30 28 59 77 89 84 92 56 17 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 0 2 3 4 3 0 -1 -7 5 LAND (KM) 933 955 980 1015 1053 1127 1193 1242 1220 1116 947 778 627 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.8 11.3 12.2 13.1 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.6 108.3 108.9 109.5 110.8 111.7 112.3 112.1 111.2 109.8 108.3 106.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 5 3 1 3 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 34 41 45 39 30 26 27 36 53 70 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 28. 26. 27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/26/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)