* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/26/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 30 35 46 58 69 76 76 75 73 70 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 30 35 46 58 69 76 76 75 73 70 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 35 41 47 52 57 62 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 5 6 13 13 10 17 24 32 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 0 0 -4 -4 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 1 37 61 74 111 78 95 108 101 78 78 91 88 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 160 158 155 153 152 150 151 153 149 145 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.4 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 60 63 61 59 58 58 51 49 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 6 7 7 9 12 15 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -9 0 7 9 10 34 67 74 60 47 44 200 MB DIV 52 44 42 27 46 25 52 74 81 58 57 13 30 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 918 941 969 995 1026 1106 1191 1280 1342 1358 1219 1049 907 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 11.4 12.4 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.4 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.9 112.3 113.4 114.1 114.1 112.8 111.6 111.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 3 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 30 41 53 44 26 18 14 14 23 27 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 24. 32. 36. 39. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 26. 38. 49. 56. 56. 55. 53. 50. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/26/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)