* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/25/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 47 51 54 54 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 40 47 51 54 54 54 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 33 37 40 42 44 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 13 11 9 11 18 16 18 23 31 31 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -8 -5 -4 1 0 1 1 -1 -8 -9 0 SHEAR DIR 353 40 72 94 122 96 101 126 129 121 105 96 98 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 160 159 155 154 154 152 150 149 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 64 65 64 61 60 59 55 45 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -14 -9 2 10 19 33 57 67 27 16 18 200 MB DIV 71 51 33 23 19 33 18 81 73 73 15 9 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 6 6 5 3 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 923 941 963 989 1020 1093 1194 1289 1381 1445 1468 1451 1403 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.9 11.5 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.4 108.0 108.7 109.4 110.7 112.1 113.3 114.3 115.0 115.2 115.4 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 28 29 39 52 47 28 19 14 12 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 34. 34. 36. 38. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/25/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)