* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/25/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 33 43 54 63 71 74 78 79 74 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 33 43 54 63 71 74 78 79 74 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 25 31 37 45 53 60 64 66 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 7 11 10 12 8 17 17 23 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 85 77 71 41 64 70 90 84 102 111 114 129 131 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 160 159 157 155 154 154 154 151 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 65 66 63 59 61 57 58 55 53 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 8 9 13 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -11 -11 -9 -7 -5 8 22 31 26 11 8 7 200 MB DIV 42 47 69 53 49 41 37 37 41 76 57 40 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 918 916 918 929 940 1011 1084 1209 1336 1444 1531 1568 1546 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.0 10.7 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.5 107.0 107.6 108.1 109.4 110.7 112.2 113.6 114.7 115.6 116.2 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 5 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 31 29 29 33 52 46 28 18 14 13 14 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 7. 16. 25. 32. 37. 39. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 14. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 23. 34. 43. 51. 54. 58. 59. 54. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/25/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)