* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/24/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 35 44 51 56 56 56 56 57 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 35 44 51 56 56 56 56 57 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 46 51 54 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 3 5 6 8 6 9 12 14 11 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 78 74 27 10 58 70 83 94 98 111 125 146 174 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 162 161 160 155 153 152 151 147 142 141 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 66 69 67 68 63 61 60 57 58 53 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -15 -14 -13 -13 -15 -5 2 8 16 9 14 11 200 MB DIV 41 34 47 48 51 17 -4 25 43 55 49 43 14 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 949 938 933 937 942 998 1065 1179 1313 1408 1493 1568 1616 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.5 107.1 107.7 108.3 109.7 111.1 112.7 114.3 115.8 117.1 118.1 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 32 30 29 29 36 55 37 23 14 12 15 20 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 38. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 15. 24. 31. 36. 36. 36. 36. 37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/24/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)