* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/24/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 41 47 52 54 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 33 41 47 52 54 55 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 35 40 46 50 52 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 3 7 9 9 9 11 17 13 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 84 121 62 23 40 62 78 92 103 123 119 168 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 162 161 158 154 152 153 148 144 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 65 66 66 69 63 61 59 59 57 54 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -20 -19 -16 -16 -17 -15 -3 4 15 14 7 8 200 MB DIV 61 36 41 52 62 45 10 6 8 20 34 22 22 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 4 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 919 903 894 894 897 952 1035 1143 1296 1409 1507 1589 1669 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.1 11.0 10.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.5 108.9 110.5 112.1 113.9 115.6 117.0 118.3 119.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 33 31 31 50 47 27 16 12 15 22 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 34. 35. 35. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/24/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)