* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/24/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 25 30 38 46 52 55 56 59 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 25 30 38 46 52 55 56 59 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 26 30 35 41 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 2 2 3 8 4 5 5 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 -1 0 1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 211 241 227 250 110 261 4 56 74 123 141 147 131 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.0 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 164 163 163 163 162 159 155 151 150 151 144 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 66 68 70 64 65 59 61 59 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -6 -13 -13 -18 -16 -20 -20 -12 -5 5 11 14 200 MB DIV 98 77 64 69 57 44 43 17 17 14 43 48 34 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -1 0 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 872 867 858 843 834 855 907 1016 1155 1328 1438 1592 1741 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.2 12.2 11.9 11.7 11.1 10.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.1 105.7 106.3 107.6 109.1 110.9 112.8 114.9 116.8 118.5 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 36 40 41 38 38 57 37 22 13 16 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 18. 26. 32. 35. 36. 39. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/24/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 51% is 4.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)