* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/23/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 46 53 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 22 25 31 38 46 53 56 57 58 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 32 38 45 52 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 6 3 4 4 2 5 4 4 4 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 1 1 3 4 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 212 205 199 162 183 200 358 60 56 108 96 154 199 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 162 161 159 155 151 151 150 143 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 70 68 69 64 62 62 61 61 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -4 -8 -14 -14 -7 -4 -5 -7 -9 -10 -6 -5 200 MB DIV 118 112 92 84 83 79 53 13 7 10 11 39 34 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 842 844 840 831 829 851 903 1008 1163 1311 1441 1575 1702 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.1 11.9 11.7 11.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.6 105.2 105.8 106.4 107.7 109.2 110.9 112.9 115.0 117.2 119.1 120.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 38 42 41 38 41 57 36 22 13 16 25 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 32. 36. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 18. 26. 33. 36. 37. 38. 40. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/23/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)