* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/23/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 38 46 52 54 56 59 63 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 34 38 46 52 54 56 59 63 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 23 24 28 33 39 46 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 11 5 2 2 4 4 5 4 7 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 2 4 3 4 -1 1 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 230 209 221 218 235 169 258 54 94 111 106 92 80 SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 162 162 160 158 157 154 153 154 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 71 67 68 68 64 64 59 60 59 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 -6 -12 -17 -18 -16 -16 -16 -9 -7 -5 0 200 MB DIV 104 119 112 96 79 75 68 14 9 5 2 17 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 806 806 805 810 805 799 849 917 1039 1180 1374 1537 1676 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.6 11.8 12.0 11.8 11.6 11.0 10.4 9.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.2 103.7 104.1 104.6 105.1 106.2 107.5 108.9 110.7 112.5 114.4 116.2 117.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 35 42 47 42 37 56 43 24 14 13 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 7. 16. 25. 33. 37. 40. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 14. 18. 26. 32. 34. 36. 39. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/23/13 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.1/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)