* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/23/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 40 46 50 53 56 59 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 28 34 40 46 50 53 56 59 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 29 35 42 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 9 11 5 2 3 4 7 7 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 1 0 2 3 4 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 223 216 211 221 218 167 194 16 60 80 94 86 82 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 163 162 161 160 161 160 160 159 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 69 71 68 68 65 61 61 60 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -4 -3 -6 -12 -17 -16 -19 -22 -15 -8 -1 6 200 MB DIV 90 104 117 112 96 88 76 55 33 12 13 7 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 775 777 779 793 810 813 864 944 1065 1226 1410 1597 1751 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.7 10.1 9.4 8.6 7.9 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.0 103.5 104.1 104.6 105.6 106.7 108.0 109.4 111.2 113.1 114.8 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 38 32 31 35 42 44 33 31 46 41 33 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 25. 34. 38. 41. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -7. -4. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 39. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/23/13 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)