* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/23/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 42 48 53 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 31 37 42 48 53 56 58 61 64 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 23 25 26 28 30 34 40 49 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 11 13 10 7 5 6 8 14 18 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 1 0 0 3 7 1 2 1 -2 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 127 158 173 176 178 195 195 177 110 104 90 90 93 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 163 163 163 162 162 162 163 162 160 158 155 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 66 68 67 63 63 61 61 58 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -2 -5 -6 -4 -8 -14 -12 -7 -4 2 7 20 200 MB DIV 113 106 102 118 122 95 88 67 53 18 15 14 24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 734 736 738 750 762 817 866 949 1069 1249 1441 1641 1831 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.2 9.5 8.7 7.7 6.7 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.3 102.8 103.3 103.8 104.8 105.9 107.2 108.7 110.6 112.6 114.3 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 40 31 30 34 44 37 28 36 46 49 43 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 0. 6. 16. 26. 34. 39. 42. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 28. 33. 36. 38. 41. 44. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/23/13 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)