* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912013 05/22/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 36 42 46 48 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 36 42 46 48 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 26 28 29 30 32 35 41 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 13 11 11 9 9 3 2 8 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 4 1 1 1 2 4 1 0 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 101 127 155 163 166 194 195 204 268 104 99 136 128 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 165 164 164 163 163 163 161 160 158 155 153 152 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 65 65 66 64 64 62 62 57 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 -2 -7 -10 -14 -13 -13 -5 0 6 3 -6 200 MB DIV 75 106 87 87 97 89 88 66 22 5 -7 29 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 1 5 3 LAND (KM) 698 695 692 699 706 740 778 826 915 1020 1172 1351 1477 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.6 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.5 102.0 102.5 103.0 104.2 105.5 106.9 108.6 110.4 112.6 114.7 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 49 52 47 36 31 41 49 36 49 48 23 13 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -1. 0. 6. 16. 26. 34. 38. 41. 44. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 16. 22. 26. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912013 INVEST 05/22/13 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)