* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 09/15/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 42 49 54 55 54 44 42 32 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 42 49 54 55 54 44 42 32 24 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 38 41 41 39 36 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 11 7 5 5 5 5 14 15 19 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 7 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 37 28 36 39 26 263 272 234 199 238 226 246 248 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.0 27.1 26.0 24.8 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 150 149 143 134 123 110 99 96 93 93 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 60 62 64 66 66 64 61 54 43 31 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 13 13 16 17 19 19 19 16 18 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 45 40 37 46 55 51 50 46 43 22 28 22 32 200 MB DIV 65 61 47 57 55 58 47 50 51 20 25 16 -13 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 3 6 11 7 10 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1641 1691 1741 1762 1784 1829 1862 1872 1875 1919 2014 2117 2072 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 17 18 25 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 4. 7. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 12. 19. 24. 25. 24. 14. 12. 2. -6. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 09/15/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)