* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 09/15/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 50 58 61 59 49 42 32 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 50 58 61 59 49 42 32 21 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 34 37 42 45 45 40 33 25 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 11 11 4 2 1 7 9 20 27 42 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 34 25 7 28 53 20 169 220 172 227 221 216 224 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.3 25.7 23.7 22.0 21.0 20.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 149 149 146 137 121 100 82 71 69 69 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 62 65 62 60 58 58 53 50 52 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 13 13 13 14 16 16 17 13 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 39 47 41 38 43 50 48 44 42 26 16 -22 -34 200 MB DIV 48 73 72 55 62 51 60 23 17 17 21 29 15 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 0 0 3 4 7 13 18 9 7 LAND (KM) 1576 1603 1631 1642 1655 1660 1666 1657 1653 1671 1657 1554 1422 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.8 13.8 14.0 14.2 15.0 16.3 17.7 19.4 21.1 23.0 24.8 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.2 122.6 123.0 123.4 124.3 125.5 126.9 128.4 129.8 131.0 131.8 132.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 4 4 5 7 9 11 11 11 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 16 16 21 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 18. 19. 19. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 4. 5. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 28. 31. 29. 19. 12. 2. -9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 09/15/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)