* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 09/14/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 41 48 55 54 55 51 44 39 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 41 48 55 54 55 51 44 39 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 41 41 38 33 27 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 10 9 11 10 2 4 6 11 18 20 30 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -1 5 3 SHEAR DIR 33 24 9 350 354 351 281 245 217 200 221 212 207 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.3 25.9 24.4 23.1 22.0 21.6 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 148 144 137 122 107 93 81 77 74 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 60 64 63 61 59 60 57 53 57 54 48 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 13 15 13 15 16 14 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 75 82 81 69 60 69 65 56 55 47 28 25 3 200 MB DIV 33 51 76 65 51 50 12 34 18 35 13 20 18 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 2 4 4 6 7 9 5 LAND (KM) 1378 1405 1434 1453 1474 1505 1568 1605 1653 1706 1763 1781 1754 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.7 18.8 19.9 21.1 22.3 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.3 120.7 121.2 121.7 122.9 124.5 126.2 127.9 129.4 130.8 132.0 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 8 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 23 19 14 12 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 18. 20. 19. 18. 16. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 10. 10. 8. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 18. 25. 24. 25. 21. 14. 9. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 09/14/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)