* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP912012 09/13/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 43 50 57 62 61 59 56 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 43 50 57 62 61 59 56 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 36 40 46 51 51 47 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 14 18 12 9 1 4 7 9 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 54 47 51 43 45 42 20 96 154 201 221 221 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.9 26.4 24.6 23.1 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 150 148 149 149 143 128 109 93 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 63 61 67 65 61 62 58 49 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 27 40 41 47 46 55 36 60 52 62 48 38 17 200 MB DIV 7 -6 -9 -5 27 80 57 54 43 44 9 19 1 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 4 4 1 LAND (KM) 1182 1250 1317 1374 1431 1492 1512 1486 1466 1452 1381 1305 1260 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.8 14.6 15.9 17.6 19.4 21.1 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.0 119.5 120.1 120.8 121.5 122.7 124.0 125.0 125.6 126.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 3 4 7 10 10 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 42 48 47 42 36 30 20 13 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 449 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 30. 29. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 18. 25. 32. 37. 36. 34. 31. 25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912012 INVEST 09/13/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)