* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 09/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 57 62 64 60 58 52 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 48 57 62 64 60 58 52 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 39 37 35 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 11 15 12 19 19 19 18 11 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -4 5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 40 53 48 15 18 356 344 329 326 324 299 332 326 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.7 26.6 26.0 25.7 23.6 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 161 160 157 150 141 130 125 122 100 78 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 79 79 75 74 68 66 64 60 59 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 10 14 16 19 18 19 18 18 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -22 -22 -24 -32 -28 -22 -2 -5 9 7 3 -18 200 MB DIV 30 43 60 66 58 72 71 98 44 19 19 -12 -15 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 0 0 -5 -7 -11 -10 -17 1 -6 LAND (KM) 444 423 405 378 360 354 402 494 476 549 624 756 855 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.3 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 102.1 103.0 103.9 104.7 106.3 108.1 109.8 111.9 114.3 116.8 119.5 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 11 13 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 63 66 64 65 61 41 25 12 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 12. 16. 15. 17. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 23. 32. 37. 39. 35. 33. 27. 23. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 09/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)