* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902012 05/14/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 25 24 25 24 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 25 24 25 24 24 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 24 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 6 10 19 20 35 35 36 29 31 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 8 8 3 8 0 0 1 2 -2 -10 SHEAR DIR 138 188 213 218 203 235 239 259 265 274 265 264 279 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 157 155 149 142 137 133 129 124 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 67 63 56 51 48 45 40 36 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 26 31 29 29 24 14 7 7 15 15 7 200 MB DIV 29 37 38 28 32 4 25 7 -3 -20 -48 -51 -37 700-850 TADV 4 3 1 2 2 -1 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 933 928 924 929 938 983 1026 1105 1127 1172 1215 1264 1298 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.1 11.7 12.5 13.1 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.6 106.3 107.1 107.9 109.6 111.4 113.0 114.5 115.8 117.0 118.1 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 4 4 3 2 3 4 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -1. -5. -9. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -16. -18. -21. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902012 INVEST 05/14/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902012 INVEST 05/14/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##