* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 10/15/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 37 43 49 57 60 62 61 60 59 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 37 43 49 57 41 31 28 27 30 25 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 37 44 52 40 31 28 27 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 2 10 5 8 11 15 19 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 1 1 0 0 -4 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 41 57 97 106 80 75 138 273 261 275 268 254 248 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 162 162 162 159 160 162 159 157 155 153 151 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 87 85 84 84 82 82 81 77 70 71 69 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 12 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 29 19 16 13 27 28 32 32 49 62 65 78 200 MB DIV 104 111 134 147 147 124 73 40 45 41 56 42 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -7 1 4 -1 2 1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 308 308 312 316 328 200 60 -105 -185 -94 -15 17 0 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.9 13.9 15.3 16.9 18.5 19.8 20.7 21.3 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.8 93.5 94.2 94.9 96.2 97.1 97.6 97.7 97.5 97.2 97.2 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 16 18 25 36 44 22 33 37 21 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 4. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 18. 24. 32. 35. 37. 36. 35. 34. 32. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 10/15/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 128.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 60% is 4.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 10/15/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##