* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 52 58 61 62 62 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 52 36 30 28 30 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 33 38 30 28 27 30 33 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 16 13 13 15 10 10 8 6 6 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 1 0 -1 0 0 4 4 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 36 37 32 25 13 14 355 18 8 23 326 321 271 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.2 29.0 28.7 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 157 158 162 164 160 157 155 153 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 7 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 76 75 78 74 77 76 77 75 74 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 17 20 14 26 21 37 27 44 5 19 12 200 MB DIV 44 54 88 92 60 82 48 77 65 41 36 34 19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 0 -3 1 -2 0 -3 1 -19 -13 LAND (KM) 296 261 235 197 160 87 3 -65 -98 -112 53 190 209 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.2 16.4 17.6 18.8 19.7 20.5 21.4 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.1 96.5 96.8 97.2 98.0 99.0 100.2 101.6 103.4 106.2 109.1 112.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 43 45 48 60 25 46 45 44 23 11 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 33. 36. 37. 37. 38. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##