* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/08/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 11 13 14 11 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 128 141 153 148 154 138 116 134 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.1 23.6 23.3 23.0 22.8 22.8 22.5 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 101 96 92 89 87 87 83 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 3 2 4 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 42 37 36 33 31 30 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 24 26 33 20 10 -5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 18 24 30 4 1 4 2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 312 320 319 287 252 169 97 36 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.3 118.4 118.2 118.1 117.3 116.5 115.9 115.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -36. -49. -61. -68. -72. -76. -78. -79. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##