* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 29 26 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 10 7 7 11 13 16 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 0 3 0 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 91 130 138 148 145 141 136 122 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.5 24.0 23.6 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 106 100 95 91 88 86 83 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 3 3 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 43 40 37 34 31 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 27 29 25 36 12 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 7 17 19 26 0 6 -10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 1 -1 -2 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 288 300 324 308 289 217 143 82 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.0 118.3 118.3 118.3 117.8 117.1 116.5 115.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -27. -42. -57. -70. -77. -81. -85. -87. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##