* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 36 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 8 9 10 13 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 98 127 135 152 145 134 116 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.5 23.1 22.6 22.5 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 105 100 94 90 85 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 47 45 42 37 34 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 15 14 12 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 31 32 32 28 26 13 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -2 16 9 14 19 -2 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 0 2 0 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 282 282 298 309 305 253 147 100 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.4 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.7 118.0 118.2 118.3 118.0 117.2 116.7 116.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -12. -12. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -7. -7. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -33. -49. -63. -77. -85. -89. -93. -94. -94. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##