* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 46 38 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 46 38 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 46 39 34 30 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 8 6 7 9 12 9 10 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 1 3 3 0 1 -2 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 44 77 100 125 159 162 136 142 94 119 175 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.2 22.7 22.5 22.4 22.6 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 114 111 106 100 91 86 83 82 83 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 2 2 3 3 5 4 7 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 49 47 49 46 41 36 31 28 26 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 16 15 13 10 6 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 31 29 28 33 30 37 18 15 7 6 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -23 -5 14 10 22 9 -5 -6 4 0 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 2 1 -1 -5 -5 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 270 266 279 286 304 258 182 121 82 47 34 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.6 29.2 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.2 117.6 117.8 118.1 118.0 117.5 117.0 116.6 116.2 116.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -20. -21. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -24. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -32. -46. -61. -76. -86. -92. -97. -98. -99. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##