* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 51 42 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 60 51 42 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 61 54 48 42 34 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 8 7 4 7 6 8 9 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 1 0 1 2 2 0 0 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 42 59 84 117 168 159 132 93 77 142 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.4 23.4 22.7 22.4 22.4 22.8 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 114 109 105 94 86 82 82 85 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.5 -50.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 51 48 47 43 39 34 30 27 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 18 17 15 12 9 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 31 32 35 34 36 40 33 16 8 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -9 -19 2 17 4 11 0 -1 -12 2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 0 3 3 -2 -3 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 238 229 229 248 260 178 117 69 35 26 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.4 29.3 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.4 116.8 117.2 117.5 117.9 117.5 117.0 116.5 116.2 116.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -18. -25. -30. -33. -35. -36. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -24. -26. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -28. -36. -51. -65. -79. -93.-101.-105.-107.-109. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##