* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP142014 09/07/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 70 61 52 43 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 70 61 52 43 29 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 72 64 57 51 40 32 27 24 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 2 4 0 10 13 6 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 1 0 4 2 8 2 5 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 64 67 74 93 166 190 212 83 57 83 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.9 23.8 22.7 22.5 22.8 22.5 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 122 117 114 110 99 86 83 86 84 104 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 5 4 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 52 51 48 45 42 38 34 30 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 19 16 13 11 7 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 35 32 30 33 29 26 31 13 3 -11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -18 -6 -12 11 0 10 0 -7 -10 -7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 0 1 -2 -5 -7 -6 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 218 214 223 214 221 256 178 130 97 44 -25 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.9 28.0 29.3 29.6 29.2 29.4 30.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.7 116.2 116.6 117.0 117.6 117.5 117.1 116.5 116.0 115.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 6 6 4 2 2 3 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -22. -30. -36. -40. -42. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -23. -27. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -28. -37. -51. -63. -73. -87. -99.-108.-111.-114. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142014 NORBERT 09/07/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##